Grand National 2019 – A Social Media View

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We all know that we should take what we read on the internet with a pinch of salt these days, after all there’s so much “fake news” around. Everyone likes to think they’re some kind of expert and whoever shouts the loudest rises to the top of the “like” pile.

However, when it comes to scouring the web for “Grand National fancies” you do actually stumble upon some great results and information from the various search engines.

Online forums are a little bit more difficult to find but if you delve deep enough you actually do come across topics dedicated to Grand National discussion. These types of forums are a wealth of information, facts and opinion, and are often written by people who are pretty clued up on the Grand National.

At the start of a New Year, here’s what I discovered people were fancying for the Grand National with just three months to go.

The Betfair and OLBG forums

December’s Becher Chase winner is attracting a lot of interest on Betfair…

Sageform asks “Can Walk In The Mill get a high enough rating to make the cut?”

To which Rydal replies “Currently on 145. Will very probably be rated higher (maybe 149?) for the race, given a good win over the fences. So, unless Walford runs him again over fences before the weights are out, more likely to be in the top half of the draw than balloted out imho.”

While over at OLBG, Crypt1c is also a fan of the Robert Walford-trainer runner…

“Walk In The Mill – His Becher run was encouraging and looked to me like would stay further. New mark a concern but there may still be more improvement.”

Crypt1c also gives us some more clues to his Aintree thinking at this stage…

  • Mall Dini – just touched off at Cheltenham in March and won a good Cheltenham hurdle in seasons gone by.  He has been consistent without actually winning. Could be further improvement over an extreme trip? Feels similar to Rule The World – I’d be interested if I was sure this was his target.
  • One for Arthur – Rapid improver in 2017 and may still be more to come? Obvious concern is 2018 absence and the early fall first time out was far from ideal.
  • RathvindenWon the 4 miler at Cheltenham and looks a genuine sort with solid form. He would have been my top choice back in May. Concern that hasn’t been seen to date (missed a couple of engagements, presumably on account of the ground), older horse so potentially less scope to improve.
    Monbeg Notorious – Some good form with good Irish horses, 50/1 readily available. Concern that not been seen to date, preference for heavy ground. Irish National run not encouraging.
  • Noble Endeavor – plenty of good runs in staying handicaps in 2016/2017 which is encouraging, seems to be targeted at the race. Concern around whether the handicapper has his number, though 50/1 is a fair price.”

I certainly like some of his thinking and at those prices they are very tempting to back.

A couple of years ago Steamship did some analysis of horses that had finished in the first three in either the Irish, Scottish or Welsh Nationals and started a thread on Betfair. His discovery about their performances makes very interesting reading:

“The last 20 years this trend has produced 10 winners from 104 runners with 203pts profit at industry S.P”

Based upon that premise the following six horses now need to be considered for the Aintree marathon following their top three placings in recent Nationals: Joe Farrell (50/1), Ballyoptic (33/1), Vintage Clouds (40/1), Elegant Escape (25/1),Ramses De Teillee (66/1),Yala Emki (50/1).

This is just a snapshot of what you can find on the internet in relation to the Grand National and you may just find that little gem of knowledge that points you towards the winner.

Happy Aintree surfing!

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