Economy is Impossible to Forecast Says Model Boss Mike Illes


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A model agency boss, Mike Illes from London-based MOT Models, who to date has been very successful in predicting economic growth and decline, admits that today’s economy is highly erratic and virtually impossible to forecast.

This finding is announced on the day that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that UK Gross domestic product grew by just 0.5% between July and September, down from 0.7% in the second quarter (–preliminary-estimate/q3-2015/stb-gdp-preliminary-estimate.html)

“Three months ago I was confidently predicting that the UK economy would grow at an annualised rate of around 2% by the end of the year, but now I honestly don’t know.

“The economy is currently impossible to forecast accurately.

“What’s clear for us is that the peaks are higher and the troughs deeper than in the past.

“However, this great uncertainty hints at an overall downward trend in GDP growth, which is of concern to anyone in business who wants economic prosperity.”

MOT Models is a leading London model agency which provides excellent models to top photographers, advertisers, designers and production companies.

One of the oldest established agencies in the UK, MOT Models is constantly at the forefront of the modelling industry, bringing about innovation and setting the highest ethical standards.

Director Mike Illes has been using his company’s bookings activity to extrapolate the state of the UK economy since 1999.

He has enjoyed such success that he now considers MOT Models as a bellwether for the economy as a whole.

By studying the number of enquiries, the type of enquiry and the castings and bookings, it has repeatedly proved possible to give an accurate picture of how the UK economy is performing and how it will perform in the near future.

For example, Mike predicted the slow-down at the end of 2014, ( which came as a surprise to many other economic commentators.

It is MOT Models’ unique industry position and client base that makes accurate estimates possible.

The agency has a large, broad spread of clients, which serves to iron out any eccentricities exerted by one particular sector.

The agency serves many advertising firms, which are strong indicators of the economy as they are the first step in running an advert.

When there are mini booms or dips, the advertising sector is always the first to falter and the first to recover.

Mike said, “In the first quarter of 2015, MOT was in a buoyant mood.

Enquiries, castings and bookings were up on the two previous years, both in terms of quantity and value.

“In the second quarter the number of bookings held up – almost identical to that quarter in 2013 and 2014 – but the value of bookings fell.

“This meant that Q2 was 5% and 15% down on 2013 and 2014 respectively, and this is a clear sign of a downturn. I think that this loss of confidence was due to the uncertainty surrounding the general election.

“In Q3, we recorded poor July and August figures but September proved to be the sixth biggest month in the agency’s history.

“October started poorly, but picked up considerably. There is a huge element of the erratic in our line of business, and there is often no obvious explanation for bumper months such as our September performance.

“It is obvious that overseas economies are having a significant effect on the UK’s economy with, for example, the Chinese economy growing at the slowest level since before the financial crisis.

“Uncertainty surrounding Europe will also affect growth prospects. My other concern is that much of the growth has been generated solely by financial institutions and that these may slow down.”

Mike Illes’ company, MOT Models, is a leading London and Berkhamsted-based model agency, providing commercial models to top photographers, advertisers, designers and production companies. Many of the agency’s models can be seen in worldwide advertising and commercial campaigns. For further information please contact Tina Fotherby on 07703 409 622 or or George Murdoch on 07834 643 977 or



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