When Week 1 of each NFL season rolls around, the 32 teams in the league will have slightly different goals, expectations, and aspirations.
The top-flight contenders won’t be satisfied unless they are lifting the Lombardi Trophy at season’s end as Super Bowl champions. The middle of the pack will be aiming to make the 12-team playoffs and perhaps even win a game. Meanwhile, the bottom tier will just be hoping to play meaningful games in December as the 16-game regular season draws to a close.
The latest Super Bowl 54 futures odds at MyTopSportsbooks.com, which roughly set out each team’s chances of actually winning the Super Bowl come February, help to stratify the league into the aforementioned tiers.
For NFL neophytes, one thing will become blatantly apparent at a quick glance at the odds: the NFL is a lot more balanced that the Premier League.
While Man City and Liverpool are about 8/11 and 3/1, respectively, to win the next 2020 EPL title, no team in the NFL is shorter than 6/1. That’s partly because there are more teams in the NFL, but it’s also because the NFL has a hard salary cap, an entry draft, and a multitude of rules that aim to create parity and preclude one team (or even six teams) from dominating.
The rules have worked, to an extent. Since 1995, only five different Premier League teams have won the title: Arsenal (3), Chelsea (5), Leicester (1), Man City (4), and Man United (11).
Juxtapose that with the NFL, where 14 teams have won the Super Bowl in that same time span:
- Baltimore (2)
- Dallas (1)
- Denver (3)
- Green Bay (2)
- Indianapolis (1)
- New England (6)
- New Orleans (1)
- New York Giants (2)
- Philadelphia (1)
- Pittsburgh (2)
- San Francisco (1)
- Seattle (1)
- St Louis (now LA Rams, 1)
- Tampa Bay (1)
That said, there are certainly still tiers in any given NFL season, and here’s how they roughly set up for 2019.
Side note: as hard as the league has tried to create parity and discourage dynasties, the New England Patriots have overcome the odds by winning six Super Bowls since 2003, reaching the “Big Game” twice more, and making the playoffs in 14 of the last 15 years. No surprises, they are at the top of Tier 1 this year.
The Top Tier
1.New England Patriots
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 6/1
Division: AFC East
2018 Record: 11-5
2018 Playoff Performance:
- Beat LA Chargers (41-28) in Divisional Round
- Beat Kansas City (37-31) in AFC Championship Game
- Beat LA Rams (13-3) in Super Bowl 53
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 8/1
Division: AFC West
2018 Record: 12-4
2018 Playoff Performance:
- Beat Indianapolis Colts (31-13) in Divisional Round
- Lost to New England Patriots (37-31) in AFC Championship Game
3. New Orleans Saints
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 10/1
Division: NFC South
2018 Record: 13-3
2018 Playoff Performance:
- Beat Philadelphia Eagles (20-14) in Divisional Round
- Lost to LA Rams (26-23 OT) in NFC Championship Game
4. Los Angeles Rams
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 10/1
Division: NFC West
2018 Record: 13-3
2018 Playoff Performance:
- Beat Dallas Cowboys (30-22) in Divisional Round
- Beat New Orleans Saints (26-23 OT) in NFC Championship Game
- Lost to New England Patriots (13-3) in Super Bowl 53
5. Chicago Bears
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 14/1
Division: NFC North
2018 Record: 12-4
2018 Playoff Performance:
- Lost to Philadelphia Eagles (16-15) in Wild Card Round
6. Cleveland Browns
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 14/1
Division: AFC North
2018 Record: 7-8-1
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
7. Indianapolis Colts
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 14/1
Division: AFC South
2018 Record: 10-6
2018 Playoff Performance:
- Beat Houston Texans (21-7) in Wild Card Round
- Lost to Kansas City Chiefs (31-13) in Divisional Round
8. Green Bay Packers
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 16/1
Division: NFC North
2018 Record: 6-9-1
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
9. Los Angeles Chargers
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 16/1
Division: AFC West
2018 Record: 12-4
2018 Playoff Performance:
- Beat Baltimore Ravens (23-17) in Wild Card Round
- Lost to New England Patriots (41-28) in Divisional Round
10. Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 16/1
Division: NFC East
2018 Record: 9-7
2018 Playoff Performance:
- Beat Chicago Bears (16-15) in Wild Card Round
- Lost to New Orleans Saints (20-14) in Divisional Round
Two of the top-tier teams will play in London this year as part of the NFL’s ongoing International Series. Chicago will face Oakland at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on October 6th, while the LA Rams will play Cincinnati at Wembley on October 27th.
The Middle Tier
1.Atlanta Falcons
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 25/1
Division: NFC South
2018 Record: 7-9
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
2. Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 25/1
Division: NFC East
2018 Record: 10-6
2018 Playoff Performance:
- Beat Seattle Seahawks (24-22) in Wild Card Round
- Lost to LA Rams (30-22) in Divisional Round
3. Houston Texans
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 25/1
Division: AFC South
2018 Record: 11-5
2018 Playoff Performance:
- Lost to Indianapolis Colts (21-7) in Wild Card Round
4. Minnesota Vikings
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 25/1
Division: NFC North
2018 Record: 8-7-1
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 25/1
Division: AFC North
2018 Record: 9-6
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
6. San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 25/1
Division: NFC West
2018 Record: 4-12
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
7. Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 33/1
Division: AFC North
2018 Record: 10-6
2018 Playoff Performance:
- Lost to LA Chargers (23-17) in Wild Card Round
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 33/1
Division: AFC South
2018 Record: 5-11
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
9. Seattle Seahawks
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 33/1
Division: NFC West
2018 Record: 10-6
2018 Playoff Performance:
- Lost to Dallas Cowboys (24-22) in Wild Card Round
The Bottom Tier
1.Oakland Raiders
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 40/1
Division: AFC West
2018 Record: 4-12
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
2. Carolina Panthers
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 50/1
Division: NFC South
2018 Record: 7-9
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
3. Denver Broncos
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 50/1
Division: AFC West
2018 Record: 6-10
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
4. New York Giants
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 50/1
Division: NFC East
2018 Record: 5-11
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
5. New York Jets
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 50/1
Division: AFC East
2018 Record: 4-12
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
6. Tennessee Titans
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 50/1
Division: AFC South
2018 Record: 9-7
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
7. Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 66/1
Division: AFC East
2018 Record: 6-10
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
8. Detroit Lions
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 66/1
Division: NFC North
2018 Record: 6-10
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 66/1
Division: NFC South
2018 Record: 5-11
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
10. Arizona Cardinals
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 80/1
Division: NFC West
2018 Record: 3-13
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
11. Cincinnati Bengals
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 100/1
Division: AFC North
2018 Record: 6-10
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
12. Washington Redskins
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 100/1
Division: NFC East
2018 Record: 7-9
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
13. Miami Dolphins
Super Bowl 54 Odds: 125/1
Division: AFC East
2018 Record: 7-9
2018 Playoff Performance: Did not qualify
